FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS ECONÓMICAS Y EMPRESARIALES
20
Introduction
This paper makes several observations and
recommendations pertaining to economic modelling.
Based on a careful study of the total of 1775 research
papers published in the journal of economic modelling
(JEM) Journal between 1984 and 2012, it presents the
percentages of papers published in individual categories
of economic modelling identified. Second, based on
an observation of the common approaches used in
economic modelling papers in the past 28 years in JEM,
this paper recommends multidisciplinary approach
to economic modelling. It suggests the incorporation
of multidisciplinary, non-economic variables in
economic modeling to formulate strong policies. Third,
in connection with the multidisciplinary approach,
it proposes the application of the ‘Omnia Mobilis’
assumption (Ruiz Estrada, 2011) to economic modeling.
Under this assumption (‘everything is moving’), a good
range of variables should be included and no relevant
variables should be neglected in economic modelling.
Moreover, it is obvious that the use of more economic
practical approaches could facilitate the explanation
of a dynamic and complex economic and social
phenomenon. The main idea behind the use of practical
economic approaches is to find suitable and applicable
models that can help to reduce the negative impact of
any economic and social problem(s) in the society by the
most efficient and realistic way. In the 21th century the use
and application of economic modelling among economists
were often based on sophisticated mathematical and
statistical techniques, methods and models introduced
during the development of new economic models. In
particular, calculus, trigonometry, geometry and statistical
and forecasting methods were employed by economists
in policy modeling. Consequently, the application of
sophisticated mathematical and statistical techniques,
methods, and models can be seen in the development
of the following economic models: The Foundations of
Economics Analysis (Samuelson, 1947), Monetary Theory
and Fiscal policy (Hansen, 1949), Econometric Models
and the Evidence of Times Series Analysis (Klein, 1956), A
Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth (Solow,
1956), Economic Policy: Principles and Design (Tinbergen,
1956), The Input–Output Economics (Leontief, 1966).
In fact, the rapid development of economic modelling has
been facilitated by high technology and sophisticated
analytical instruments such as the electronic calculator and
the computer. The development of analysis instruments in
economics took place in two stages. The first stage involved
“basic computational tools”, where electronic calculators
were used to compute basic mathematical expressions
(e.g. long arithmetic operations, logarithm, exponents and
squares).
This took place between the 1940s and 1960s. The second
stage which involved “advance computational tools” began
in the middle of the 1990s up to the present day. This marks
the era when high speed and efficient storage-capacity
computers that are installed with sophisticated software
were introduced for the first time. The use of sophisticated
software enables easy information management,
application of difficult simulations as well as the creation of
high resolution graphs. Obviously, the analysis instruments
contributed substantially to the development and research
in economics.
Over the years the high computational instruments backed
by sophisticated software have been used to formulate
large economic models which are largely beneficial for
secondary data uses. Economic modelling approaches
basically comprise of the descriptive economic modelling
and analytical economic modelling, both of which can be
categorized according to functions and database sizes. In
terms of function, the two economic modeling approaches
are either descriptive or analytical. The descriptive
economic modelling on the one hand shows arbitrary
information that is used to observe a long historical data
behavior from a simple perspective. While analytical
economic modelling on the other hand is used to generate
time-series, cross-section modelling to show the trends
and relationships between two or more variables from a
dynamic perspective. The research leading to this paper
shows a strong link between the introduction of new
economic modelling and the development of theories,
methods and techniques in statistics and mathematics.
It is important to note the difference and similarity that
exist between economic modelling and policy modeling
(Ruiz Estrada and Yap, 2013). The main difference is
based on the research focus and theoretical approaches
applied to the analysis of different economic phenomena.
In terms of similarity, both fields focus on the analysis of
different economic phenomena to study the irrational
and chaotic behaviors through time (history) and space
(geographical). To study the difference and similarity that
exists between economic modelling and policy modelling,
the bibliographical references of two prestigious journals
viz. the journal of policy modeling (Elsevier, 2012a) and
the journal of economic modeling (Elsevier, 2012b) are
employed.